July 6, 2016 - "Sometimes Party Loyalty Asks Too Much" "Cross-pressures could impact this election in several ways. It could delay voter decisions, keep voters home, and conflict voter confidence and promote a "lesser of two evils" vote. " by V. Lance Tarrance, Jr.
January 6, 2016 FOXNews.com "If Trump gets the GOP nomination will it hand Democrats a win in 2016? Not necessarily!" "...For many Republicans outside the Washington area, Trump’s candidacy has been a breath of fresh air in an atmosphere of suffocating campaign double-talk, political correctness and the business-as-usual approach of the political class in the nation’s capital........Trump, with his “Make America Great Again” theme, has the potential to win states in the Midwest like Michigan, Wisconsin and Ohio (“make the industrial states great again”)........This would mean getting support from more blue-collar and white working-class voters, not just suburban, college-educated, white-collar voters. These angriest voters have been attracted to Trump largely for his unique leadership style – yes, I said “style,” not “policy” – and this is what makes this election year totally different, one that no Romney or McCain would understand........Now is not the time to be conflicted. Now is the time to realign the Republican party with key Midwest states, and Trump may have the answer. In just a few weeks, the 2016 primaries may also have the answer." by V. Lance Tarrance, Jr.
"Winning Campaigns" by Ken Rietz (2016) Mascot Books - "At lunch one day with James Carville in Washington D.C., I asked him which Republican consultant he most disliked going up against. He answered very quickly, 'Lance Tarrance, because he knows how to interpret a poll and understands strategy'. I learned how good Lance was in the 1982 campaign against us. I would use Lance in all campaigns after that.", pg,171.
"Democracy for Hire, A History of American Political Consulting", by Dennis W. Johnson (2016) Oxford University Press - "...political consultants are essential to modern campaigning...and make a positive contribution to democracy and public discourse...and have become key factors in
the electoral success of candidates for high office...Chapter 2 looks at the formative years of public opinion research...Chapter 7 focuses on the evolution of polling, looking at how the science, techniques, and technology of public research have changed...by the time he was 30 years old, V. Lance Tarrance had climbed high in Republican circles...(earlier)...Tarrance was elevated to Research Director of the RNC; at 28 he was the youngest ever to hold that position", see the Tarrance profile pgs. 154-156; other pgs. 89, 92, 108, 151, 247, 478, and 483.
"Breaking Republican: A Campaign Handbook for Third Way Candidates in 2016"now available on Amazon.com.
"A Nail Biter in 2016," Presentation to the Gallup Organization and Washington & Lee University by V. Lance Tarrance, Jr., August 2015 (Contact Gallup for more information)
"While skeptics have a point in doubting tax reform can happen this year, the president, and now Paul Ryan, insist it will. Public support for middle-class…" by V. Lance Tarrance, Jr.
"...More recently, in an early April 2017 Gallup poll, fewer than half of Democrats (40%) said they want to keep the Affordable Care Act "largely as it is." The majority would either make significant changes to it (52%) or repeal and replace it (5%)." by V. Lance Tarrance, Jr.
March 7, 2017 - "Can a 'Nation of Immigrants' Reform 21st-Century Immigration?",
"President Donald Trump's Rust Belt-fueled victory in 2016 sprang from his staunch commitment to protecting American jobs, in part by curbing and controlling immigration. Trump has swiftly begun to follow through on one of his key promises -- to construct a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border. He also issued two executive directives for the Homeland Security Department detailing a new administrative launch and expansion of deportation policies for undocumented residents." by V. Lance Tarrance, Jr.
JANUARY 11, 2017 - "The 'Divided States of America'?",
"In its end-of-year issue, Time magazine rather unsurprisingly named Donald Trump its "Person of the Year." More surprisingly, there was a subtitle under Trump's cover photo that stated, "President of the Divided States of America." by V. Lance Tarrance, Jr.
December 2, 2016 - "Pence Well-Positioned to Further Expand the Vice Presidency," "Pence brings one other strength to Washington: his relative popularity. According to Gallup's final pre-election poll, conducted Nov. 1-6, Pence ended the 2016 presidential campaign as the best-liked of the four candidates on the major party tickets. His 49% favorable rating among registered voters was significantly higher than Trump's 37%, Hillary Clinton's 42% and Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine's 39%." by V. Lance Tarrance, Jr.
November 7, 2016 -"America's Unique and Controversial Electoral College," "Every four years, Americans choose their next president using a unique -- if not controversial and even arcane -- system called the Electoral College...The U.S. system is the only current example in the world in which a head of state of a democracy is elected so indirectly." by V. Lance Tarrance, Jr.
September 22 , 2016 -"It's All About the Debates Now," "Debates have become the Super Bowl of the race for the White House, with candidates performing not only for the tens of millions of potential voters tuning in, but also for the millions more who may be influenced by secondary coverage days later." by V. Lance Tarrance, Jr.
August 3, 2016 - "Fear of the 'Greater of Two Evils' Could Spur High Turnout," "Unable to transform their images with voters, the 2016 presidential candidates will likely focus on vilifying their opponent in an unprecedented race to the…" by V. Lance Tarrance, Jr.
December 22,2015 FOXNews.Com "Trump, Sanders, Cruz: The "wei ji" of political anger (and fear) in 2016"
"There are two Chinese characters – the “Wei” and the “Ji” – that when viewed separately mean crisis and opportunity...The new key to understanding the 2016 Presidential race is that international terrorism aimed at 'big cities, big targets, and in foreign lands', at least in American minds, now become potentially local terrorist attacks...this is why the 'wei ji' moment will have to shift from crisis mode to opportunity mode to become the next pivotal moment." by V. Lance Tarrance, Jr.
October 29,2015 FOXNews.com "Will Paul Ryan be able to unite the GOP?"
"Paul Ryan was elected Speaker of the House Thursday. The burning question now is can he unite his fractured party?" by V. Lance Tarrance, Jr.
"How Republicans can win in a changing America: The Art of War with Lesson Plans"now available on Amazon.com
2013 and older
April 4, 2012 - Book Forum, CATO Institute, Washington D.C.
"The Lost Majority: Why the Future of Government Is Up for ..."
Featuring the author Sean Trende, Senior Elections Analyst, RealClearPolitics.com; with comments by Lance Tarrance Jr., President, Tarrance Consulting and ... Watch the video here.
AAPC honors Hall of Fame Inductees
April 3, 2013 - AAPC honors Hall of Fame Inductees: ... included in this year's inductees is famed GOP pollster V. Lance Tarrance.Watch the announcement video here.
We follow the news and occasionally we make it ourselves. Here are some of our most recent Opinion Editorials, YouTube videos and other published works. Check back with us often as we frequently update this page..
Nov. 19, 2009 - Associated Republicans for Texas Launches Statewide Effort: ... The Associated Republicans of Texas (ART), a Republican organization focused on winning Texas House races and formed almost 35 years ago at the urging of Texas’ first Republican Senator, John Tower...
Board of Directors: George Seay, Dallas; John Steen, San Antonio; Lance Tarrance, Austin; Ray Washburne, Dallas; Dr. Walter Wilkerson, Jr., Conroe. Read more here.
2011 - The Electoral Challenge: Theory Meets Practice: CQ Press 2011, by Stephen C. Craig, David B. Hill - Each chapter features an essay from a top scholar in the field, followed by a response from political consultants. "There are three world views concerning swing voters and these world views are often in conflict. Each seeks...to discover how swing voters reach their ultimate decision". Reference Chapter: "Measuring the Swing Voter" by V. Lance Tarrance, Jr.
October 7,2015 FOXNews.com "To win in 2016 Republicans need a 'third way' candidate not a third rail"
"America is indeed ready for a populist conservative on public policy issues, not just another boring economic conservative or an overly moralistic social conservative." by V. Lance Tarrance, Jr.
September 24, 2018 - "'Geo-Economics,' Trump and the 2018 Midterms",Competing factors for the midterms are presidential approval, which would imply GOP losses, and economic sentiment, which would suggest GOP gains.
June 25, 2018 - "A New Regional Paradigm for Following U.S. Elections", ...Traditional Census regions -- the Northeast, Midwest, South and West -- don't fully align with today's political divisions, and the well-known red/blue state classification lacks geographic references. A new scheme is needed...by V. Lance Tarrance Jr.
May 4, 2018 - "California Dreaming: Is Talk of Secession Just Politics?", Democratic state officials in California, including the governor and attorney general, have made national news over the Golden State's various legal battles with the Trump administration. These battles have led some to wonder if Californians would prefer that the state become an independent country or at least act like one. By V. Lance Tarrance Jr.
March 7, 2018 - "Previewing Base Voter Messaging for the 2018 Elections","Democrats looking for a midterm message beyond opposing Donald Trump have a number of traditional Democratic issues to choose from. Republicans..." by V. Lance Tarrance, Jr.
January 5, 2018 - "The Peril of Midterms: Can Trump Defy the Odds Once Again?", "Midterm elections are notoriously perilous for the president's party, and Trump's approval rating only makes matters worse. Can he produce another surprise?", by V. Lance Tarrance, Jr.
October 10,2017 - "How Long Are We Willing to Live With National Anxiety?",
"The point is, if Americans perceive elected officials in Washington to be the nation's "managers," it's easy to understand why they remain dissatisfied with the state of the country, even as the economic fundamentals have improved.", by
V. Lance Tarrance Jr.